BESIDES CHANDRAYAAN, HERE IS ANOTHER HEADLINE VIRAL IN THE UK

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India’s future is like China’s past! India transformed in less than a decade; different from 2013: Global investment banking firm Morgan Stanley report

https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.timesofindia.com/business/india-business/india-transformed-in-less-than-a-decade-different-from-2013-morgan-stanley-report/amp_articleshow/100642315.cms

In a short span of 10 years, India has gained positions in the world order with significant positive consequences for the macro and market outlook.

India’s Decade of Transformation:

Forex
◆ 2014- $285 Billion
◆ 2023- $603 Billion

Corporate Debt as % of GDP
◆ 2015- 65%
◆ 2023- 50%

Foreign Direct Investment:
◆ 2013- $22 Billion
◆ 2023- $46 Billion

Mutual Fund Investment:
◆ 2013- $100 Billion
◆ 2023- $500 Billion

Electrified Railways:
◆ 2013- 4,100 kms
◆ 2023- 28,100 kms

Corporate Tax Rate:
◆ 2013- 33.9%
◆ 2023- 22%

RBI CPI Inflation:
◆ 2013- 10%
◆ 2022- 4.7%

Direct Benefit Transfer:
◆ 2013- $0.89 Billion
◆ 2023- $32 Billion

National Highways:
◆ 2014- 25,700 kms
◆ 2023- 53,700 kms

Airports
◆ 2014- 74
◆ 2023- 148

Digital Transaction as % of GDP
◆ 2016- 4.4%
◆ 2023- 76.1%

No. of IITs
◆ 2014- 16
◆ 2023- 23

No. of IIMs
◆ 2014- 13
◆ 2023- 20

No. of IIITs
◆ 2014- 09
◆ 2023- 25

No. of Institutes of National Importance
◆ 2014- 75
◆ 2023- 149

No. of AIIMS:
◆ 2014 – 7
◆ 2023 – 25

No. of Medical Colleges
◆ 2014 – 385
◆ 2022 – 693

Consider that household debt/GDP in India is just 19% vs. 48% for China and that only 2% of Indian households have life insurance. Manufacturing and services PMIs have rallied consistently since the end of Covid restrictions in contrast to the rapid fade seen in China. As well, real estate transaction volumes and construction have broken out to the upside.

Global investment banking firm Morgan Stanley, which has downgraded China while upgrading India in its list of emerging markets in Asia, is of the opinion that India’s future looks to a significant extent like China’s past.

The path taken by India since 2014 reveals that India is likely to get the tag of the third largest economy in 2027 (or FY28) based on actual GDP data as on March 2023, a movement of seven places upwards since 2014 when India was ranked tenth and two years earlier than our previous forecast of 2029.

Upwards and Onwards

Picture of Gaurang Vaishnav
Gaurang Vaishnav